Champions League 2014 Match 11 prediction: Lions (59%) expected to defeat Chennai (41%)

By Shashi Mittal On September 24, 2014

Prediction methodology

Prediction: Lions (59%) predicted to defeat Chennai (41%) (Match scorecard)

Team form

Chennai lost their first match against Kolkata Knight Riders, but defeated Dolphins convincingly in their second match. On the other hand, Lions had to go through the qualifying stage of the tournament first, in which they won two matches out of three. They lost their only match so far in the main round to Kolkata Knight Riders.

Venue

The Chinnaswamy Stadium has traditionally been a high scoring ground, the average score in the first innings this year being a whopping 189. Chennai scored 242 runs in their last match and easily defeated the Dolphins. However, historically the stadium has slightly favored the chasing team, with 23 matches won by teams batting first and 32 matches won by teams batting second on this ground. (Detailed venue statistics)

Prediction

Our model gives a definite upper hand to the Lahore Lions going into this match. Chennai are overall a good team, however bowling is still their weakness. Even in their last match which they won easily after scoring 242 in the first innings, Dolphins batsmen gave the Chennai bowlers a run for their money in the first few overs. If Chennai bat first and are unable to put a big total on the board, it will become difficult for their bowlers to defend the total. Managing bowlers in the death overs, especially in the second innings, has long been Dhoni's Achilles heel. As such, he is heavily dependent on the batting strength of his team to win the matches.

On the other hand, bowling is definitely a strong point for Lahore Lions, and it is only their batting that has let them down in this tournament so far. Aizaz Cheema has taken 10 wickets in 4 matches so far, and he has been ably supported by Wahab Riaz has supported him well, taking 5 wickets of his own. If their bowling can neutralize the potent batting lineup of Chennai and their batting can hold their own, then they will definitely emerge on the top in this game.