Champions League 2014 Match 12 prediction: Barbados (60%) expected to defeat Cobras (40%)

By Shashi Mittal On September 25, 2014

Prediction methodology

Prediction: Barbados (60%) predicted to defeat Cobras (40%) (Match scorecard)

Team form

Both the teams are yet to win a match in this tournament so far. Barbados Tridents lost their only match so far to Kings XI Punjab. Cape Cobras have lost both their match: the first one to Northern Districts, the second one to Hobart Hurricanes. The stakes are certainly higher for the Cobras in this match, as another loss will likely eliminate them from the tournament.

Venue

Mohali is not a typical high-scoring venue for Twenty20 matches, and the average first innings score at Mohali in this format since 2013 has been below the overall first innings average. Its big size and relatively slow outfield makes scoring a little more difficult for the batsmen. The team batting second on this ground has won two-thirds of the time since 2008, and three-fourths of the time since 2012. All the three matches played in this tournament so far have been won by the team batting second. It is therefore quite possible that the toss plays a crucial role in the outcome of the next two matches to be played here as well.

Prediction

Our model heavily favors the Barbados Tridents in this match, giving them a 60% chance of winning as opposed to 40% for the Cape Cobras. The Cobras have been especially profligate with their bowling, as they have given up 206 and 186 runs in their two matches to their opponents. This might prove problematic for them again given that the Tridents have a fairly solid batting lineup. On the other hand, the Tridents bowling isn't too great either - they were unable to defend a score of 174 against Kings XI Punjab.

This match is therefore a contest between two teams both of which have a spotty bowling attack, and a somewhat reasonable batting strength. Expect this match to be a medium scoring one in which there will be opportunities for both the batting and the bowling, but in the end the Tridents should come out on the top.