Champions League 2014 Match 16 prediction: Hobart (56%) expected to defeat Barbados (44%)

By Shashi Mittal On September 27, 2014

Prediction methodology

Prediction: Hobart (56%) predicted to defeat Barbados (44%) (Match scorecard)

Team form

Hobart Hurricanes: The Hurricanes lost their first match to Kings XI Punjab, but then came back strongly to defeat the Cape Cobras and then the Northern Districts.
Barbados Tridents: The Tridents have lost both their matches so far, the first one to Kings XI Punjab, and the second one in a one-over eliminator to the Cape Cobras.

The big picture

The Hurricanes are currently in the second position in the points table, and a win in this match will seal their place in the semi-finals. Even if they lose, they can still make it but they will be dependent on the outcome of other matches in that case. On the other hand, the Tridents have to win both this match as well their next match to have any chances of reaching the semi-final round. The only advantage the Tridents have is that they have one more match left after this one, so they still control their own destiny to some extent, but still they will need to upstage three teams ahead of them to reach the next stage.

Venue

An interesting fact about Mohali is that it is one of the few venues where the fast bowlers have performed better than the spinners, at least in the T20 format. However, in this tournament, the leg- spinners (batting average 10.0) have certainly had a much better success as compared to the fast bowlers (batting average 21.0), while the off-spinners have struggled mightily (50.7). This might give some advantage to the Barbados Tridents, who have a quality leg-spinner in Jeevan Mendis.

Prediction

It will be a close match, but our model gives a slight advantage to the Hobart Hurricanes over the Barbados Tridents. We certainly don't expect this match to go the super over similar to what happened in the last of the Tridents, but quite likely the game will remain alive till the last over the second innings.