Champions League 2014 Match 19 prediction: Lions (61%) expected to defeat Perth (39%)

By Shashi Mittal On September 29, 2014

Prediction methodology

Prediction: Lions (61%) predicted to defeat Perth (39%) (Match scorecard)

Team form

Lahore Lions: The Lahore Lions lost their first match to Kolkata Knight Riders, and then their match against Chennai Super Kings was called off because of rains. They won their last game against the Dolphins.
Perth Scorchers: The Scorchers started their campaign in a thrilling fashion, defeating the Dolphins thanks to consecutive last ball sixes by Mitchell Marsh. However, after that they lost their next two matches against Kolkata Knight Riders and Chennai Super Kings.

The big picture

The Scorchers are already out of the semi-final stage. However, the Lions still have a chance to make it to the next round. They are currently in the third position, but if they win this match emphatically to cover the net run-rate differential of 0.690 against the Super Kings, they will make it to the next round.

Venue

There is a forecast for rain on Tuesday that might play spoilsport in this match. If that happens it will be real bad luck for Lahore Lions who would have two rain washouts in the tournament, and subsequent elimination. If the weather is good, then the Lahore Lions should decide to chase if in case they win the toss. Bangalore has been a good ground for chasing, and given the high average scores on this ground in the recent years, it will be more helpful for Lions to chase with a definite target in front of them.

Prediction

The Lahore Lions are predicted to win this match easily. However, the more important question is what are the chances of them making it to the knock-out round of the tournament? Unfortunately, our models are not sophisticated enough to answer that question accurately. As already mentioned, the Lions have to overcome a big deficit in the net run-rate, which amounts to either winning the match by a margin our around 50 runs, or chasing the set target in around 15 overs. They have the ability to accomplish this, but it won't be an easy affair for them.