Champions League 2014 1st Semi-Final prediction: Hobart (63%) expected to defeat Kolkata (37%)

By Shashi Mittal On October 01, 2014

Prediction methodology

Prediction: Hobart (63%) predicted to defeat easily Kolkata (37%) (Match scorecard)

Team form

Kolkata Knight Riders: Kolkata Knight Riders won all of their four league matches. However, in the first three matches, their batsmen struggled to chase reasonable targets - each of them was less than 160 runs. They defeated Dolphins quite convincingly in their previous match.
Hobart Hurricanes: The Hobart Hurricanes lost their first match to Kings XI Punjab. After that they came back strongly, and defeated Cape Cobras, Northern Districts and Barbados Tridents with relative ease.

Venue

The Knight Riders have played all their four matches on this ground, so this is a familiar hunting territory for them. Their bowlers, and in particular spinners, have done quite well on this ground, but the batsmen have struggled. Hyderabad is not a typically high scoring ground like other Indian venues, and a score of 170 runs in the first innings is a defensible target. It is also a ground where the chasing team has performed much better than the team batting first, so expect the team winning the toss to bowl first in this match.

Prediction

Our model heavily favors the Hobart Hurricanes in this match. This is a bit of a surprise, since the Knight Riders have won all their four matches, are on a 13 match winning streak, and playing on what is pretty much their home ground for this tournament. However, their win streak hides their serious weakness in batting, which struggled quite a bit in the first three matches before catching momentum in their last match. They have had to depend heavily on cameos from their lower order batsman, but that is not going to work all the time. Where the Knights really excel is in the spin bowling department, and the trio of Sunil Narine, Yusuf Pathan and Piyush Chawla have made it difficult for the batsmen to score on this ground. The Knight Riders will again rely on them to keep the Hurricanes batsmen in check.

The Hurricanes are also really strong in the bowling department, except that their attack is led by two outstanding pacers, Doug Bollinger and Ben Hilfenhaus who between them have picked up 16 wickets in this tournament. On the top of that, their batting lineup is fairly solid too, led by Aiden Blizzard and Shoaib Malik. Which is why they are a formidable opponent, and the Knight Knight Riders will need more than just a few cameos to reach the finals.