CPL 2015 Match 19 Preview: St Lucia Zouks vs St Kitts and Nevis Patriots
Today's match pits the third place Zouks against the fourth place Patriots in a match that could potentially see the Zouks go to the top of the table (temporarily at least) if they are able to pull off a victory against the Patriots.
After a good start to the 2015 CPL which saw them net 5 points from their first three matches, the Zouks have notched only one win since while the Patriots are coming off a disappointing loss to the Guyana Amazon Warriors on Wednesday.
With the Zouks having the second worst net run rate in the League, Cricmetric has the Patriots as firm favourites to win the match with a 61% probability of victory. The form of the Zouks opening pair of Fletcher (especially) and Charles have the Zouks as favourites for the highest opening partnership and the team most likely to have an opening partnership of at least 20 runs. Refer to the tables below for the full set of match predictions.
Pre-Match Predictions
St Lucia Zouks
Despite sitting third on the ladder, the St Lucia Zouks need to lift their bowling performances if they are going to remain towards the top end of the ladder come the end of the tournament.
The Zouks have an impressive batting strike of 128.7, average a 6 every 17.0 deliveries faced and only face an average of 1.9 dot balls per over. These results compare favourably to the same metrics averaged across all T20 cricket over the last 3 years.
However it is the Zouks bowling which needs most attention. Their economy rate for the tournament to date is 138.4, compared to the Patriots 126.8 and the overall average of 122.7. This blow out is even more surprising given that the economy rate of the current Zouks bowling line up over the past three years has been a respectable 125.5.
They also concede a boundary every 6.1 deliveries, i.e one per over, compared to the overall average of one boundary every 7.0 deliveries. While this does not sound like a huge margin, over the course of an inning it equates to 10-15 runs. Only across overs 5-8 are the Zouks bowlers conceding a respectable economy rate (109.9). In the final 4 overs their economy rate is 173.9, compared to the average economy rate in overs 17-20 of 151.5.
Players to Watch
The St Lucia Zouks have been served well so far in the tournament by their top three batsmen. The opening pair of Fletcher and Charles are striking at the impressive rates of 137.0 and 154.8 respectively, while Kevin Pietersen is striking at 146.7 at number 3. Importantly, both Fletcher and Pietersen are averaging 32.4 balls per inning and 25.7 balls per inning respectively. Combined they account for almost 60 deliveries per match, or half a T20 inning, which provides a great platform for the rest of the team. Unfortunately, after the top three only Sammy (127.9) has been striking at an above average rate. Ross Taylor has been particularly disappointing, with a strike rate of only 93.8 for which he is occupying 16.2 delivers (almost 3 overs) per inning.
The unavailability of Shakib Al Hasan and Eddie Leie has left the Zouks with a distinct lack of bowling variety, and it is hurting them. There were no left arm bowlers or wrist spinners in the team that played the Jamaica Tallawahs on Tuesday. Having a full variety of bowling options is critical to preventing the batsmen developing any sort of rhythm in T20 cricket. Only Gabriel has an acceptable economy rate of 111.0, with the next best being Edwards at 135.3. Shillingford's return to the team has been less than successful to date. He has delivered a worse than average 1.3 dot balls per over and has been "slugged" (i.e. runs conceded divided by non-dot-balls bowled) at the rate of 2.0 per ball, which is also worse than average. Combining these two metrics sees Shillingford's economy rate at 157.7, the highest among mainstream bowlers across both teams.
It may be time for the Zouks to give Delorn Johnson a game so that there is at least one left armer in the team. The one saving grace for the Zouks is that historically the St Kitts top 5 do not have a good record against right arm finger spinners. This may be Shillingford's opportunity for redemption.
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots
Like the Zouks, the Patriots have performed solidly with the bat throughout the tournament and have very similar metrics to the Zouks across the board. The Patriots batting strike rate of 124.3 is above average but slightly lower than the Zouks 128.7.
Unlike the Zouks, the Patriots bowling has been steady for them so far in this CPL. Over the first 12 overs the Patriots bowlers have an excellent economy rate of just 110.6, compared to the average economy rate of 113.7 across these overs. The Patriots bowlers also bowl 6 more dot balls per match than the Zouks, which on average gives them an extra 12 runs per innings in the process.
The weakness for the Patriots bowling is in the death overs. The economy rates for the Patriots bowlers over this period is 201.8, or roughly 12 runs per over. Compared to the Zouks economy rate in the last 4 overs, the Patriots give away close to 8 runs more than the Zouks.
Players to Watch
Like the Zouks, the Patriots top three batsman have consistently built a solid platform for the team throughout the competition. Guptill, Lewis and Samuels are averaging 26.4, 20.4 and 30.7 balls per innings respectively. While their strike rates (Guptill 124.9, Lewis 126.6, Samuels 134.4) have not been as dynamic as the Zouks top three, the difference is that the Patriots have Brathwaite and Afridi in the waiting who have been striking at 196.4 and 132.6 respectively. Brathwaite has the highest slug rate across both teams (2.5 runs per non dot ball) and incredibly averages a six every 6.2 deliveries faced.
Sohail Tanvir has been the pick of the bowlers for the Patriots in the tournament to date. He has an economy rate of 86.3, concedes a boundary every 10.9 balls (next closest on the team is Brathwaite at one boundary every 7.9 balls), bowls 2.9 dot balls per over and is only slugged at the rate of 1.7 runs per non dot ball. Tanvir's contribution is the main reason the Patriots boast such a strong economy rate in the first 8 overs. Shamsi and Brathwaite have also bowled well with economy rates of 121.2 and 122.9 respectively. Shamsi has not been used by St Kitts in the death overs of this year's CPL as yet. Given that he has been an above average performer over the last 3 years in the final four overs, expect the Patriots to experiment with him in this role in an attempt to fix their closing over woes.
Key Match Ups
- Look out for big knocks from Fletcher and Pietersen. Both have good records against the majority of the Patriots bowling, with the only exception being that Fletcher performs below average against Sohail Tanvir.
- Wherever possible, Patriots are best to avoid bowling Afridi and Shamsi against the Zouks top three, who each have positive records against these two bowlers.Patriots will be hoping for two early wickets to avoid this scenario.
- Look for Shillingford or McCullum to open the bowling against the Patriots. Both Patriot openers are below average performers against right arm finger spinners in general but also specifically against Shillingford.
- No player in the top 6 for the Patriots has a positive record against leg break bowling. Unfortunately, unless Leie re-joins the squad from Bangladesh, the Patriots will have no such weapon to employ against them.
- Only Charles in the Zouk's top 6 has a positive record against left arm finger spin bowling. The Patriots do not have a left arm orthodox bowler in their squad.
- Expect Samuels to make an early entry in the Patriots innings at number 3 given Lewis' below average record against the Zouks quicks.
St Lucia Zouks
Despite sitting third on the ladder, the St Lucia Zouks need to lift their bowling performances if they are going to remain towards the top end of the ladder come the end of the tournament.The Zouks have an impressive batting strike of 128.7, average a 6 every 17.0 deliveries faced and only face an average of 1.9 dot balls per over. These results compare favourably to the same metrics averaged across all T20 cricket over the last 3 years.
However it is the Zouks bowling which needs most attention. Their economy rate for the tournament to date is 138.4, compared to the Patriots 126.8 and the overall average of 122.7. This blow out is even more surprising given that the economy rate of the current Zouks bowling line up over the past three years has been a respectable 125.5.
They also concede a boundary every 6.1 deliveries, i.e one per over, compared to the overall average of one boundary every 7.0 deliveries. While this does not sound like a huge margin, over the course of an inning it equates to 10-15 runs. Only across overs 5-8 are the Zouks bowlers conceding a respectable economy rate (109.9). In the final 4 overs their economy rate is 173.9, compared to the average economy rate in overs 17-20 of 151.5.
Players to Watch
The St Lucia Zouks have been served well so far in the tournament by their top three batsmen. The opening pair of Fletcher and Charles are striking at the impressive rates of 137.0 and 154.8 respectively, while Kevin Pietersen is striking at 146.7 at number 3. Importantly, both Fletcher and Pietersen are averaging 32.4 balls per inning and 25.7 balls per inning respectively. Combined they account for almost 60 deliveries per match, or half a T20 inning, which provides a great platform for the rest of the team. Unfortunately, after the top three only Sammy (127.9) has been striking at an above average rate. Ross Taylor has been particularly disappointing, with a strike rate of only 93.8 for which he is occupying 16.2 delivers (almost 3 overs) per inning.The unavailability of Shakib Al Hasan and Eddie Leie has left the Zouks with a distinct lack of bowling variety, and it is hurting them. There were no left arm bowlers or wrist spinners in the team that played the Jamaica Tallawahs on Tuesday. Having a full variety of bowling options is critical to preventing the batsmen developing any sort of rhythm in T20 cricket. Only Gabriel has an acceptable economy rate of 111.0, with the next best being Edwards at 135.3. Shillingford's return to the team has been less than successful to date. He has delivered a worse than average 1.3 dot balls per over and has been "slugged" (i.e. runs conceded divided by non-dot-balls bowled) at the rate of 2.0 per ball, which is also worse than average. Combining these two metrics sees Shillingford's economy rate at 157.7, the highest among mainstream bowlers across both teams.
It may be time for the Zouks to give Delorn Johnson a game so that there is at least one left armer in the team. The one saving grace for the Zouks is that historically the St Kitts top 5 do not have a good record against right arm finger spinners. This may be Shillingford's opportunity for redemption.
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots
Like the Zouks, the Patriots have performed solidly with the bat throughout the tournament and have very similar metrics to the Zouks across the board. The Patriots batting strike rate of 124.3 is above average but slightly lower than the Zouks 128.7.Unlike the Zouks, the Patriots bowling has been steady for them so far in this CPL. Over the first 12 overs the Patriots bowlers have an excellent economy rate of just 110.6, compared to the average economy rate of 113.7 across these overs. The Patriots bowlers also bowl 6 more dot balls per match than the Zouks, which on average gives them an extra 12 runs per innings in the process.
The weakness for the Patriots bowling is in the death overs. The economy rates for the Patriots bowlers over this period is 201.8, or roughly 12 runs per over. Compared to the Zouks economy rate in the last 4 overs, the Patriots give away close to 8 runs more than the Zouks.
Players to Watch
Like the Zouks, the Patriots top three batsman have consistently built a solid platform for the team throughout the competition. Guptill, Lewis and Samuels are averaging 26.4, 20.4 and 30.7 balls per innings respectively. While their strike rates (Guptill 124.9, Lewis 126.6, Samuels 134.4) have not been as dynamic as the Zouks top three, the difference is that the Patriots have Brathwaite and Afridi in the waiting who have been striking at 196.4 and 132.6 respectively. Brathwaite has the highest slug rate across both teams (2.5 runs per non dot ball) and incredibly averages a six every 6.2 deliveries faced.Sohail Tanvir has been the pick of the bowlers for the Patriots in the tournament to date. He has an economy rate of 86.3, concedes a boundary every 10.9 balls (next closest on the team is Brathwaite at one boundary every 7.9 balls), bowls 2.9 dot balls per over and is only slugged at the rate of 1.7 runs per non dot ball. Tanvir's contribution is the main reason the Patriots boast such a strong economy rate in the first 8 overs. Shamsi and Brathwaite have also bowled well with economy rates of 121.2 and 122.9 respectively. Shamsi has not been used by St Kitts in the death overs of this year's CPL as yet. Given that he has been an above average performer over the last 3 years in the final four overs, expect the Patriots to experiment with him in this role in an attempt to fix their closing over woes.
Key Match Ups
- Look out for big knocks from Fletcher and Pietersen. Both have good records against the majority of the Patriots bowling, with the only exception being that Fletcher performs below average against Sohail Tanvir.
- Wherever possible, Patriots are best to avoid bowling Afridi and Shamsi against the Zouks top three, who each have positive records against these two bowlers.Patriots will be hoping for two early wickets to avoid this scenario.
- Look for Shillingford or McCullum to open the bowling against the Patriots. Both Patriot openers are below average performers against right arm finger spinners in general but also specifically against Shillingford.
- No player in the top 6 for the Patriots has a positive record against leg break bowling. Unfortunately, unless Leie re-joins the squad from Bangladesh, the Patriots will have no such weapon to employ against them.
- Only Charles in the Zouk's top 6 has a positive record against left arm finger spin bowling. The Patriots do not have a left arm orthodox bowler in their squad.
- Expect Samuels to make an early entry in the Patriots innings at number 3 given Lewis' below average record against the Zouks quicks.
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Match Score
St Lucia Zouks vs St Kitts and Nevis Patriots
Jul 10, 2015 | Basseterre
Jul 10, 2015 | Basseterre
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