CPL 2015 Match 23 Preview: Trinidad & Tobago Red Steel vs St Lucia Zouks

By Bruce Ogden On July 14, 2015

The Red Steel take on the Zouks tonight in Port of Spain in a must win match for St Lucia if they going to make a serious challenge for the 2015 CPL title. The Zouks have only two matches remaining in the group stage of the league and a loss tonight would leave them precariously placed on just 7 points. The teams behind the Zouks - Red Steel and the Guyana Amazon Warriors - have 5 and 4 games respectively in hand, and a win tonight for Red Steel would see them move level with the Zouks on points. Coming off two straight losses, the Zouks must turn it around tonight.

Cricmetric's pre match prediction model is showing Red Steel as favourites for the match, with a win probability of 58%. Although the bowling line ups are evenly matched, Red Steel's favouritism comes from having a stronger middle order batting line up (on paper at least) in the shape of the Bravo brothers and Kamran Akmal. The Zouks batting line up is heavily dependent on their top 3 of Fletcher, Charles and Pietersen, at least two of whom need to fire tonight to give them a chance of victory.

Pre-Match Predictions

Trinidad and Tobago Red Steel

Red Steel will be looking for a repeat of Saturday's strong all round performance on the road against the Patriots in tonight's match at home against the Zouks. The win against the Patriots was achieved on the back of continued excellence in the bowling department from Badree and Dwayne Bravo and, more encouragingly, a confident chase led by their top 3 of Kallis, Delport and Perkins.

Despite Red Steel showcasing a strong batting line up on paper, it has been a case of gradual improvement with every match which culminated in the Steel's best performance of the tournament in their last outing. Red Steel's overall batting strike rate sits at a lowly 107.5 after 5 matches, well below the par strike rate of 120.7. However excluding the no result match, Red Steel's strike rate, as well as other key batting metrics, have improved with every match across the tournament. Refer to the table below.



Importantly, in the last game the Red Steel batsmen were able to face an average of 24 balls per inning and score at an above average rate of 123.3 against the Patriots. Of course, it was the Steel's top three that delivered this. It is time for their more than capable middle order to step up and show this same kind of form tonight.

Although they have conceded totals of 179 and 180 this CPL, on average the Red Steel bowlers have performed on par throughout the tournament to date. While their economy rate (121.2) is line with average (122.7), they take a wicket every 16.9 balls and bowl 2.4 dot balls per over, both better than the average returns of 19.2 balls per wicket and 2.2 dot balls per over. The Steel have however struggled to contain the opposition in the first 8 overs, with Dwayne Bravo - despite being their most effective closer - going at a strike rate of 150 in this period.

Players to Watch

Cricmetric has installed Red Steel as favourites for this match on the basis of having the stronger mid order batting line up, however their form in the tournament to date has been well below potential. Refer to the table below for details.



All three of have been losing their wickets too regularly, as shown by the Balls per Out metric in the table above, while the Bravo brothers are also well below their usual standards on strike rate and dot balls faced per over. Unless the Red Steel top order can fire again today, the Bravo brothers must start rotating the strike more early on so that they are set when the acceleration in scoring is required.

St Lucia Zouks

The St Lucia Zouks would have been disappointed with their performance against their most recent outing against the Patriots last Friday. Despite another solid contribution from Fletcher, there was surprisingly little back up from Charles and Pietersen, and not surprisingly little back up from the rest of the batting line up.

It has been the story of their batting season to date that while their top three averages a combined total of 73.3 balls faced per inning and score at a strike rate of 142.8, batsmen 4-6 average a combined 29.6 balls per inning at a strike rate of just 100.5. Even including the injured Sammy in the top 6 improves the combined strike rate of batsmen 4-6 to just 108, still well below the average of 120.7. Given the recent trend for only one of the top 3 Zouk's batters to fire, more is expected and more needs to be delivered by the Zouks middle order batting.

On the bowling front, the Zouks have now conceded 3 above average totals in succession. Despite a brilliant return from McCullum, their latest performance against the Patriots was their worst bowling performance of the season in a non-shortened match. Their economy rate of 134.9, 5.5 balls per boundary conceded and 2.2 runs conceded per non dot ball were all season "worsts" for the team. As of now, only Gabriel (111.0) has an economy rate which is better than average (122.7) and only McCullum (15.8 balls per wicket) picks up a wicket more frequently than the 19.2 balls per wicket average. As a team, they are one of the few teams that have a worse than average economy rate across all overs of the innings.

Players to Watch

If Sammy was not injured, the Zouks might be considering whether they should trial another batsman in the top 6 to replace the struggling Ross Taylor. A strike rate of 92.2 batting at number four is at face value nowhere near the return you would expect from that position, let alone a player of Taylor's experience. While he has played a couple of useful supporting innings, with the season effectively on the line Taylor needs to contribute in this match if given a chance. This is especially the case given that the less experienced Lesporis has struggled during his only two appearances thus far in the tournament.

Nathan McCullum was able to hold his head high in the loss to the Patriots after taking four wickets. If the middle order batting is the key to Red Steel being favourites for tonight's match, Nathan McCullum's bowling is to key to negating that strength. McCullum has an above average bowling record against both the Bravo brothers based on their past match-ups, and while he has not bowled to Perkins before, Perkins has a clear weakness against right arm finger spinners.

Key Match Ups

• Kallis has a strong bowling record against both Zouks openers, Fletcher and Charles. The Steel will be hoping he makes the early breakthrough in tonight's match.
• However once they get past the openers, Kevin Pietersen has an above average record against every Red Steel bowler except Bravo. Maybe it is Pietersen's turn to be in the runs for the Zouks tonight.
• Ross Taylor has only faced Kallis, Badree and Bravo in the past from the Red Steel bowling line up, and has a poor record against each one. If Taylor is going to be in the runs tonight, it will be in contrast to historic performances.
• Only Charles in the Zouk's top 5 has a positive record against left arm finger spin bowling. Although Pietersen also has a below average record when facing left arm finger spinners, he does have an above average record against Benn. If Benn is on his game tonight, he could cause problems for the Zouk's line up.
• The top three of the Red Steel on the other hand, are susceptible to leg break bowling. Perhaps Cottoy will be asked to roll his arm over early in the innings for the Zouks?
• As mentioned earlier, McCullum will be looked to as the man to keep the Bravo brothers quiet in the middle order of the Red Steel batting line up.