CPL 2015 Match 24 Preview: Guyana Amazon Warriors vs Jamaica Tallawahs

By Bruce Ogden On July 15, 2015

When these two teams squared up against each other on Sunday, the Tallawahs were in 3rd place and just one win away from the top of the ladder. The Warriors on the other hand were at the foot of the table but with games in hand and looking for a win before heading home for the first time this season. It is history now that the Warriors outplayed the Tallawahs in all departments to move up to 5th on the ladder while the loss pushed the Tallawahs down to 4th. With the best net run rate in the league, a win tonight for the homecoming Warriors would push them into outright 3rd and put them in a strong position to challenge for top spot in the ladder in their remaining league games, all of which will be played at home.

For last Sunday's game between these teams, Cricmetric had the Warriors as firm favourites with a win probability of 56%. For tonight's game, Cricmetric's pre match prediction model has the Warriors as even stronger favourites with a win probability of 68%. The increase reflects both the dominance of their last victory against the Tallawahs and the inclusion of Simmons in the prediction model - in the previous game it was assumed that Griffith would open the batting with Fudadin. Furthermore, if Bishoo plays tonight instead of Wiese then their win probability increases to 70%. Refer to the tables below for the full set of match predictions.

Pre-Match Predictions

Guyana Amazon Warriors

In the preview to last Sunday's match between these teams we highlighted that among the Warriors batting line up, only Hodge (26.2 balls per inning) and Fudadin (28.5 balls per inning) had faced more than the average of 17.2 balls per inning. In the match on Sunday, it was these two again plus Simmons who combined to deliver the big total (179 for 3) against the Tallawahs. The bonus for the Warriors was Umar Akmal's most significant contribution of the campaign to date (17 off 15). Akmal played sensibly to support Hodge and together they put on 64 runs off 33 deliveries to put the Warriors in the driving seat.

Following the win against the Tallawahs and with Simmons back in the line-up, the Warriors are performing above average across almost all key batting metrics - balls per innings (17.7 v 17.4 avg), balls per out (23.3 v 21.1 avg), strike rate (130.5 v 120.7 avg), balls per boundary (6.4 v 6.7 avg) and slug rate (2.1 v 2.0). Only in terms of dot balls faced per over (2.2 v 2.1 avg) are they performing worse than average. These excellent metrics however are mainly due to the performances of their top three batsmen. If the middle order is required to bat, the Warriors will be looking for signs of form from Akmal, Ramdin and Barnwell as they head into the tail end of the season. If their last batting performance against the Tallawahs was strong, then their bowling performance was Herculean. We highlighted in the previous match review that the Warriors bowling had been their better discipline in the CPL to date, and against the Tallawahs is was better still. Following the match the Warriors bowlers were conceding just 7.3 runs per over (v 7.4 average) and taking a wicket every 16.7 balls (v 19.2 average).

Players to Watch

In the pre-match review last Sunday, we highlighted that Narine was one of the few bowlers to have a positive record against Gayle, and it was Narine who picked up the key wicket of Gayle in the 3rd over last Sunday. Has performance (3-0-9-2) improved his season to date metrics as follows:

Economy rate reduced from 6.3 rpo to 5.8 rpo.
Balls per boundary increased from 11.1 to 11.8.
Dot balls per over increased from 2.4 to 2.6.

As always, Narine will be a player to watch tonight.

However it was Beaton who had the highlight returns in the last match against the Tallawahs. His figures of 2.5-0-9-4 reduced his balls per wicket metric to an amazing 8.9 for this year's CPL, more than twice as good as the average performance of 19.2. Historically Beaton has had a stronger record against the Tallawahs middle order so if early break throughs are made, look for Beaton to again be the clean-up man. The inclusion of Simmons in the starting XI strengthens the Warriors. So far in the 2015 CPL, Simmons has faced 28.0 balls per innings and scored at a strike rate of 110.0. Both Fudadin and Simmons make perfect foils for a firing Hodge and either could be relied upon to anchor the innings in the event of the loss of early wickets.

Jamaica Tallawahs

All the Tallawahs key team CPL-to-date batting metrics took a hit in their lasting outing against the Warriors, as follows:

Strike rate fell from 132.5 to 128.1
Balls per inning per batsman fell from 17.0 to 15.6
Slugging rate fell from 2.2 runs per non-dot ball to 2.1

Outside of the top 3, the Tallawahs batting line up is vulnerable. Only Russell can genuinely claim he has made solid contributions to the team performance however batting at 6 or 7 usually gives limited opportunity to make a difference. The Tallawahs are in a bind having already dropped Jayawardene, and when facing one of the stronger bowling teams in the competition it is important to have batting depth. Vettori and Santokie were the pick of the bowlers against the Warriors last Sunday, as they have been the pick of the Tallawahs bowlers all competition. Vettori leads the team in terms of economy rate (6.1 rpo) while Santokie leads the team in terms of balls per wicket (12.6). No other bowler in the Tallawahs team is above average in either of those metrics. Barring a rule change which allows bowlers to bowl a maximum of 10 overs, someone else needs to stand up for the Tallawahs tonight. While Santokie has been an effective wicket taker, it is he and Theron who have both underperformed the most in this CPL against their career economy rates. Theron has gone at 7.8 runs per over in this CPL (7.5 career) while Santokie has conceded 7.7 rpo compared to his 3 year economy rate of 6.9 runs per over.

Players to Watch

Unsurprisingly, Gayle is the key for the Tallawahs batting line up. He is the only batsman in the Tallawahs top six to have an overall positive record against the Warriors bowling. Much will depend upon whether he can weather the Narine storm. The Tallawahs opened the bowling in their last game with their best two bowlers, Santokie and Vettori. The Warriors gave them due respect and respectively they only conceded 4.25 and 5.50 runs per over. However no other bowler conceded less than 10 runs per over. In Gayle, Lynn, Bonner and Deonarine, the Tallawahs have options in terms of left and right arm finger spin bowling as well as a leg spinner. The Tallawahs might be well served by employing some variety against the Warriors batting if the early break throughs are not forthcoming.

Key Match Ups

Look for Gayle to be back in the runs today. His biggest threats are Narine and Beaton. Gayle needs to focus on his past successes against these two, survive the challenge, then plunder the remaining bowlers against whom he is dominant.
Expect Vettori and Santokie to open the bowling again tonight. Vettori has been bowling well and is overdue for multiple wickets.
Apart from Vettori and Santokie, no other Tallawahs bowler has a positive record against the Warriors batting. As mentioned above, look for the Tallawahs being more creative in their bowling options compared to their last game.
Hodge has been the man in form recently for the Warriors. Over his career, he performs above average against all bowling types except left arm fast bowling, left arm medium bowling, left arm finger spinners and leg spinners. Vettori and Santokie are the keys here. An early wicket will give them the chance to bowl to Hodge and is the best chance of getting into the Warrior middle order early.