CPL 2015 Match 26 Preview: Guyana Amazon Warriors vs St Lucia Zouks

By Bruce Ogden On July 17, 2015

With five matches left in the league stages of the 2015 CPL, literally every team has it all to play for. While it is not surprising that every team has a chance of making the final series, what is unusual is that every team bar the Patriots has a mathematical chance of finishing first in the league and thereby receiving direct passage into the final. For the Patriots, they could finish as high as second which would put them into a play-off match for the final.

As for the two combatants tonight, the permutations are seemingly endless.

A win tonight for the Zouks in their last league match would guarantee them a position in the top four. They could finish as high as 1st or as low as 3rd. A loss tonight could still see them finishing in the top four, but could also see them missing out altogether. With the weather again threatening in Guyana, a no result could also see the Zouks missing out on the finals if other results don't go their way.

The Warriors have three league games remaining and, win or lose tonight, they would still have a chance to either top the table or miss out on the final four altogether.

Simple, right?

Cricmetric is prepared to put its Monopoly money on the table and predict what the ladder is most likely to look like at the end of the league stages. Please see below.

We predict that the Warriors and Red Steel will finish on 11 points each, with the Warriors taking the top spot due to superior net run rate. The Tridents will finish in 3rd on 10 points while the team with the best net run rate between the Tallawahs and Zouks will make up the final four.

A few things to note about the table above:

Probabilities do not add up to 100% because of the possibility of teams finishing on the same number of points. For example, if two teams finish in 4th place, we have not tried to separate their position based on run rate and assumed that they both come 4th.
Although we predict Red Steel to finish second, they also have the second lowest probability of finishing in the top 4. How can that be? For teams with games in hand there are more possibilities for the outcomes of those games compared to those that have already played nine matches. As we believe the Warriors are stronger than Red Steel, there is a higher likelihood that Red Steel might also lose some matches and fail to qualify.
Is it true that the Tridents are guaranteed to make the top 4? It is true but on points only. It is possible they could still miss the top 4 based on net run rate.

It's an old cliche in sport but, match fixing aside, you can only influence the matches you play in. While both teams will be desperate for a win tonight, you can't help but think the Zouks know this is their last chance to control their destiny, and will play accordingly.

Cricmetric's pre match prediction model has the Warriors as overwhelming favourites for tonight's match with a win probability of 70%. One factor that could affect this prediction will be the performance of Cottoy. The Warriors top order performs below average against only two types of bowling: left arm finger spin and leg spin bowling. With Shakib Al Hasan unavailable, that leaves the leg breaks of Cottoy as a potential game changer against the Warriors top order. Although he has only played two games this CPL, he has picked up two wickets at the excellent economy rate of 7.0 rpo. Refer to the tables below for the full set of match predictions.

Pre-Match Predictions

Guyana Amazon Warriors

The Warriors have not played since Cricmetric's match preview of their game against the Tallawahs, which was washed out without a ball being bowled. The following is a repeat of that preview and remains relevant for tonight's match.

In the preview to last Sunday's match between the Warriors and the Tallawahs, we highlighted that among the Warriors batting line up, only Hodge (26.2 balls per inning) and Fudadin (28.5 balls per inning) had faced more than the average of 17.2 balls per inning. In that match it was again these two plus Simmons who combined to deliver the big total (179 for 3) against the Tallawahs. The bonus for the Warriors was Umar Akmal's most significant contribution of the campaign to date (17 off 15). Akmal played sensibly to support Hodge and together they put on 64 runs off 33 deliveries to put the Warriors in the driving seat.

Following the win against the Tallawahs and with Simmons back in the line-up, the Warriors are performing above average across almost all key batting metrics - balls per innings (17.7 v 17.4 avg), balls per out (23.3 v 21.1 avg), strike rate (130.5 v 120.7 avg), balls per boundary (6.4 v 6.7 avg) and slug rate (2.1 v 2.0). Only in terms of dot balls faced per over (2.2 v 2.1 avg) are they performing worse than average. These excellent metrics however are mainly due to the performances of their top three batsmen. If the middle order is required to bat, the Warriors will be looking for signs of form from Akmal, Ramdin and Barnwell as they head into the tail end of the season.

If their last batting performance against the Tallawahs was strong, then their bowling performance was Herculean. We highlighted in the previous match review that the Warriors bowling had been their better discipline in the CPL to date, and against the Tallawahs is was better still. Following the match the Warriors bowlers were conceding just 7.3 runs per over (v 7.4 average) and taking a wicket every 16.7 balls (v 19.2 average).

Players to Watch

In the pre-match review last Sunday, we highlighted that Narine was one of the few bowlers to have a positive record against Gayle, and it was Narine who picked up the key wicket of Gayle in the 3rd over last Sunday. Has performance (3-0-9-2) improved his season to date metrics as follows:

Economy rate reduced from 6.3 rpo to 5.8 rpo
Balls per boundary increased from 11.1 to 11.8
Dot balls per over increased from 2.4 to 2.6.

As always, Narine will be a player to watch tonight. However it was Beaton who had the highlight returns in the last match against the Tallawahs. His figures of 2.5-0-9-4 reduced his balls per wicket metric to an amazing 8.9 for this year's CPL, more than twice as good as the average performance of 19.2. Beaton however has a less than successful track record against the Zouks batting line up and will be hard pressed to repeat that performance tonight.

The inclusion of Simmons in the starting XI strengthens the Warriors. So far in the 2015 CPL, Simmons has faced 28.0 balls per innings and scored at a strike rate of 110.0. Both Fudadin and Simmons make perfect foils for a firing Hodge and either could be relied upon to anchor the innings in the event of the loss of early wickets.

St Lucia Zouks

The Zouks thrilling last ball win in the rain shortened match against Red Steel on Tuesday followed a familiar pattern. After the Zouks bowlers conceded what looked to be a winning total for the Steel, Charles set the tone at the top of the line-up for the Zouks smashing 41 off 23 deliveries. In a mish-mash of support, the second top score was 11 and the Zouks lost 6 wickets but thanks to some last over heroics from the unlikely pair of McCullum (Nathan, that is) and Taylor, the Zouks sprung over the line for the win.

This is not intended to belittle their performance. The bottom line is that the Zouks did enough against the odds to record a crucial victory, one that may well have ensured they qualify in the final four this year. However this game against the Warriors is just as crucial. The lowest total Zouks have restricted their opposition to this year has been 148 - the highest among all teams. Gabriel and McCullum have been the best of the bowlers to date for the Zouks and they will need to be at their best again tonight. As mentioned earlier, Cottoy could be the wild card for the Zouks given the Warriors lack of past success against leg spin bowling.

Players to Watch

In their the first four games of the season, the trio of Fletcher, Charles and Pietersen (FCP) were doing a Meatloaf with two out three scoring at least 20 runs in each game. That ain't bad given their combined strike rate of 143.2. In their last five games however they have repeated this only once. The good news at least is that in the other four recent games, one of the FCP trio has made a significant contribution to the team score. Given the inability of their bowling to contain batting line ups in the tournament to date, the inconsistency of their middle order batting and the must win nature of the game tonight, at least two out of three of the FCP trio need to fire to give the Zouks a fighting chance.

Key Match Ups

Fletcher and Charles will be the men to star in the batting line up for the Zouks. Fletcher and Charles are the only two Zouks batsmen with an above average record against the Warriors bowling line up.
De Lange and Beaton are the only mainstream bowlers for the Warriors to have below average records against the Zouks while Narine - as always - and Permaul both have strong positive records against the Zouks. Look for Permaul in particular to impress as the Zouks middle order have shown a prolonged weakness against left arm orthodox bowling over the past 3 years.
In the Warriors batting top six, only Umar Akmal has an overall below average record against the Zouks line up Simmons has a strong record against both Edwards and Gabriel, and despite having only faced 3 balls from McCullum in the past, has a good record against right arm finger spin bowling. Expect Simmons to be in the runs tonight.
As mentioned, Cottoy has the potential to disrupt the Warriors batting tonight which has a historical weakness against leg spin bowling