CPL 2015 Match 30 Preview: Guyana Amazon Warriors vs Trinidad & Tobago Red Steel

By Bruce Ogden On July 21, 2015

Trinidad and Tobago have a chance to steal a place in the 2015 CPL Final with a win over the Guyana Amazon Warriors in tonight's final group game. A loss however would put them into a sudden death, must win eliminator against the Tallawahs in order to stay alive in the title hunt. A similar carrot dangles over the Warriors noses. A win tonight will give them second place on the ladder and passage to the qualification final against the winner of Red Steel and the Tallawahs. A loss however sees them also thrown into a sudden death eliminator against the Tallawahs.

Cricmetric's pre match prediction model has the Warriors as favourites for tonight's match with a win probability of 58%. While the recent momentum is undoubtedly with the Steel, the Warrior's favouritism is driven by their tweakers led by the incomparable Narine and ably supported by Messrs Bishoo and Permaul. However bowling is only half the game and the Warriors can ill afford a repeat of last Saturday's extraordinary failed chase of a barely mediocre Tridents total.

The Steel on the other hand will be brimming with confidence on the back of three straight wins, and will be looking to extend that to season high four and their second win over the Warriors team this campaign.

If Cricmetric's prediction of a Warriors win is correct, and with the Steel fresh off a dominant performance against the Tallawahs, tonight's match may well be a preview of Saturday's qualification final for the right to take on the Tridents in the final.

Pre-Match Predictions

Guyana Amazon Warriors

The Warriors have not put in a convincing batting display since the 12th July when they racked up 179/3 batting first against the Tallawahs. In their two completed games since, they struggled against the leg-spin of Cottoy losing 7 wickets and taking 18 overs to overhaul the Zouks 111, while against the Tridents it was the Nelson again that proved their nemesis as they could only manage 111/6 in response to the Trident's 125.

Two matches, two brilliant bowling performances and only one win to show for it.

The fact that it was actually their third brilliant bowling performance in a row - the Warriors also bowled out the Tallawahs for 95 in that game on the 12th - will be of little consolation to the Warriors players and management as a half decent batting performance against the Tridents (this is not meaning to belittle the Trident's bowling) would see them playing for a spot in the final tonight.

Despite striking at more than 140 in this CPL edition, both Hodge and Ramdin scored at less than a run a ball in the loss against the Tridents. This lack of urgency, highlighted by Simmons utilizing 31 balls (more than 5 overs or one quarter of the Warriors allotment) for his all-too-small contribution of 15, left too much for the lower middle order to do in the face of some intelligent bowling.

Players to Watch

Hodge, Ramdin and Simmons have been the backbone of the batting line up for the Warriors this season. Hodge and Ramdin have averaged 23.9 and 18.6 balls per inning respectively during this CPL, each with excellent strike rates of over 140. While Simmons has been the more consistent of the three, averaging 28.4 balls per innings, his strike rate has been a below average 101.5. It could be argued that Simmons provides the perfect foil for the more attacking Hodge and Ramdin, as combined, these three occupy almost 12 overs per inning at an above average strike rate of 127.9 (average 120.7). However it could also be argued that Simmons' slower scoring rate puts unnecessary pressure on the middle order of Umar Akmal, Barnwell and Weiss who have proven themselves to be more than capable of delivering with the bat over the past three years.

Cricmetric has been working on a more comprehensive way of measuring the contribution of players to their team performance to address this sort of conundrum, and the case of Simmons provides the perfect situation to introduce it.

In their last match against the Tridents, Simmons scored 15 off 31 deliveries. How, if at all, did this contribution affect the chances of the Warriors winning given that they were only chasing 126 for victory?

Cricmetric has developed a methodology, based on analysis of thousands of prior T20 matches, to determine the average contribution made by players (batsmen and bowlers) in a given match situation in terms of wickets lost, runs scored, balls remaining and in the case of teams batting or bowling second, the target being chased. For Simmons' innings against the Tridents, Cricmetric measured him as being 16 runs below average. That is, past on analysis of past games, an average batsman would have actually scored 31 runs off those 31 deliveries given the same situations that Simmons faced in that match.

Since the Warriors only lost that match by 14 runs, it can also be said that the remaining Warriors batsmen had a combined Contribution Score of +2 runs in relation to the total they were chasing. Put in normal speak, Simmons' occupation of the crease for 5+ overs scoring at a strike rate of 53 put too much pressure on the rest of the Warriors line up who were only able to perform in line with average and could not find a champion to get them over the line.

We will be providing more detail on the Contribution Score methodology on the Cricmetric site shortly.

If we look at the Warriors season with the bat in the context of Contribution Scores, Hodge (CS 40.2 at an average of 5.0 per game) and Ramdin (CS 34.6 at an average of 4.9 per game) lead the way and combined have contributed a total of 75 runs above the average returns of batsmen who have played in the same match circumstances that they have appeared. However their consistency has been lacking, with Hodge making an above average contribution in 4 out of 7 appearances (57%) while for Ramdin it is lower at 50% (3 from 6). To put Hodge's and Ramdin's contribution scores into perspective, they are ranked 5th and 8th respectively across all teams in this year's CPL.

Simmons on the other hand has been more consistent (he has made an above average contribution in 4 out of 6 of his innings), however he has only contributed a total of 14 runs above the average returns (rank of 15th) across the 2015 CPL at an average of 2.0 per innings.

The importance of Ramdin in particular making an above average contribution is evidenced by the fact that the Warriors only wins these seasons have come in the four games he has made an above average contribution. For Hodge and Simmons, the Warriors win 75% of games where at least one makes a positive contribution. It will be vital for the Warriors that one or more of these three contribute tonight to give their bowlers the support they deserve. While Barnwell has made a couple of useful contributions of late, Umar Akmal's outputs continue to be scratchy and at a low strike rate.

The Warriors bowlers have been in dominant form all season, particularly Narine, Permaul and Bishoo. No other team in the 2015 CPL features three front line bowlers each with an economy rate of less than a run a ball, with Narine leading the way with a miserly economy rate of 5.0 runs per over.

The concept of Contribution Scores as described earlier applies equally to bowlers as it does to batsmen. Narine, Permaul and Bishoo are ranked 1st, 7th and 13th in the 2015 CPL in terms of overall contribution scores, with Narine (CS of +105 runs) the only bowler to saved more than 100 runs compared to the average bowler this season. He has done so at an average CS of 13.1 runs per game, with the next best being Mendis at 9.5 runs per game. Narine's performance comes as no surprise as he has been the top T20 bowler in the world (minimum 200 deliveries) over the past 3 years, with an average CS of 10.6 runs saved per match.

At risk of sounding like a broken record, the Steel must find a way to combat the threat these three pose tonight. Although the Steel won their only previous encounter this season, it was on the back of a poor Warriors batting display. In that match, Narine, Bishoo and Permaul almost pulled off an improbable victory defending a paltry 118 with the combined bowling figures of 11.5-0-63-6.

The importance of the Warriors batting performance to the outcome of the game tonight is highlighted by the fact that despite Narine's dominance and consistency with the ball all season (he has performed above average in all 8 matches this season) the warriors have only won 50% of them.

Trinidad and Tobago Red Steel

On the 17th July and with five matches remaining in the group stage of the CPL, Cricmetric predicted in its preview of the Warriors/Zouks game that the Steel would finish on 11pts assuming wins against the Patriots and Tallawahs, only to be halted on their direct path to the final in their final game against the Warriors.

Now it is upon us we retain our view that the Warriors will win tonight leaving the Steel on 11 pts, however the on-going form of Kallis and Badree as well as the resurgence of the Bravo brothers will leave Steel supporters in no doubt that they will have the Warriors measure tonight.

Players to Watch

It is barely a week ago that the Bravo brothers had scored 75 runs between them in their first 8 innings of the 2015 CPL campaign, and it seemed that any failure from Kallis at the top of the order would result in the Steel's batting line up melting. Since then, the Bravo brothers have combined for 205 runs in their last 6 innings propelling the team to three straight wins. Darren has been particularly impressive scoring 130 runs in his last three innings at the incredible strike rate of 185.7. In these three innings alone his contribution score has been +49.0 runs above the expected return for an average player.

The better news is that Kallis has continued on his merry ways throughout the Bravos' turnaround. Sunday's win against the Tallawahs marked the 6th consecutive innings that Kallis had made an above average contribution score, which is an important result for a top order batsman looking to set the tone for the innings. Kallis 63 was his second 50+ score in three innings at the acceptable strike rate of 121. Results for the season to date show that when Kallis makes a positive contribution with the bat, the Steel win 83% of their matches.

Like his brother, Kamran Akmal's output with the bat has been below expectations. Kamran has the team's lowest overall contribution score with the bat this CPL, scoring a total of 26.5 runs worse than average given the match situations he has appeared.

Badree and Dwayne Bravo have been the picks of the bowlers for the Steel this season. Badree has been the most consistent recording above average performances in 86% of the innings he has bowled, with an overall contribution score of 32.2 runs conceded better than average. While Bravo has been less consistent recording above average returns in just 57% of matches in which he has bowled, his overall contribution score with the ball (30.0) is only slightly lower than Badree's. This reflects the high impact Bravo has with the ball when he is on song. It is no coincidence that the Steel have won 100% of games that Bravo has contributed positively with the ball.

As one of the few left arm medium-fast bowlers in the league, Davis has added some more than useful spark and variety to the Steel attack in the few matches he has played. He has delivered strongly in his first three matches this season for the Steel, which have not surprisingly all been victories. In this form, he may well deliver more joy for the Steel.

Key Match Ups

• The Warriors batting danger men - Simmons, Hodge and Ramdin - have strong records against the majority of the Steel bowlers. Simmons has a negative record only against Bravo and Botha, Hodge only against Badree and Ramdin only against Kallis. As there is no common "bowling foe" amongst these batsmen, at any point in time while they are batting together, at least one batsman will have a positive record against the current bowler. The Warriors need to manage this smartly, rotate the strike and take advantage of these match ups to restore some pride to their batting.
• Kallis has a negative record against every Warriors bowler he has faced in the past. The two key bowlers he hasn't faced before are Bishoo and Narine. Kallis has a below average record against both leg-spin and right arm finger spin bowling. It is likely that Kallis' good run may come to an end tonight.
• Dwayne Bravo has a negative batting record against the entire Warriors bowling line up.
• Davis has not bowled to any of the Warriors in the past. While Simmons and Fudadin have below average records against left arm fast medium bowling, the remainder of the Warriors batting have exceptional records against this type of bowling.