CPL 2015 2nd Semi Final Preview: Guyana Amazon Warriors vs Trinidad and Tobago Red Steel

By Bruce Ogden On July 25, 2015

W.E. Hickson is credited with popularizing the proverb, "If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try again". It is unlikely Hickson was prophesizing on behalf of the Trinidad and Tobago Red Steel when he penned this, particularly as there are no more chances for redemption if the Steel lose tonight.

However, after failing just four days ago in their first attempt to topple the Warriors and qualify directly to the final, try again tonight they must.

Their first attempt was an abject failure, capitulating to the Warriors in a 7 wicket drubbing in Guyana. Tonight the stage shifts to more friendly surroundings for the Steel - Port of Spain - the scene of their last three victories in this seasons CPL. When they met just four days ago Cricmetric predicted the Warriors would come out on top with a win probability of 58%. However such was the dominant nature of the victory, Cricmetric's pre match prediction model for tonight's match has the Warriors as hot favourites with a win probability of 66%. Refer to the tables below for the full set of match predictions.

Pre-Match Predictions

Trinidad and Tobago Red Steel

What can the Steel do to turn tonight's result around?

With four wins in their last five matches, the Steel, as a team, should not be short of confidence. In fact they must be thinking they can win from any position with the Bravo brothers in such searing form. They were at it again in their 27 run victory against the Tallawahs on Thursday. Darren's undefeated 86 off 63 balls and Dwayne's 5-23 were each match winning performances in their own rights. The Bravo brothers combined contribution score was +34 runs above average which accounted for the Steel's entire winning margin. Perhaps the Steel management should consider a quick trip to the Bravo family home to see if there are any other siblings around with nothing to do tonight.

The Warriors will be equally aware of the danger that Dwayne Bravo poses with the ball. Bravo took 4 for 18 against the Warriors in the Steels narrow 3 wicket victory on 4th July. In that match the Warriors were routed for just 118 and Bravo was ably supported by Kallis and Cooper who took 2 wickets a piece. Like Bravo, Cooper was also in the wickets against the Tallawahs and the Steel will be hoping both continue their good form tonight.

Dwayne Bravo has made six above average contributions with the ball this season. Such is his impact, these are the six games the Steel have won.

However it is their batting which raises most questions ahead of tonight's match. Even in their win against the Tallawahs only two batsmen - Darren Bravo and Mohammed - made double figures. Normally the key to a successful batting performance, the Steel's top 3 all failed against the Tallawahs. After returning six consecutive above average performances at the top of the order, Kallis has now failed in his last two innings. Delport scored just 1 run to maintain his consistent record of being inconsistent. Delport has made an above average contribution in exactly half the innings he has played this campaign, however only once has he played them in succession. Kamran Akmal's failure has to be said was expected, as he has only made two positive contributions in seven at bats this season.

The Steels previous win against the Warriors marked the only occasion this season where all of the Steel top five made double figures. While it is true they were only chasing a small total and almost made a mess of it, at least it could be said that every one of the Steel top five contributed to that win. The Steel cannot rely on the Bravo brothers to drag them over the line in every game. At least one of the Steel top three needs to "get in" and contribute tonight.

Guyana Amazon Warriors

For the Warriors it should be a case of more of the same in tonight's match. Their win against the Steel on Tuesday was set up with the ball, which has been their strength all season. In our preview of that game, we had predicted the spin trio of Narine, Bishoo and Permaul to be the danger men for the Warriors. Their combined bowling figures against the Steel were 12-0-56-3, representing the excellent economy rate of 4.7 rpo and resulted in 23 runs less than average being scored off their bowling. However it was de Lange who had the best bowling figures for the Warriors, picking up 4-23 off his four overs which was easily his best return for the season.

Also in our preview of that game, we highlighted the fact that the Warriors win 75% of games when either Hodge or Simmons make a positive contribution with the bat. What makes this statistic more crucial is that Simmons and Hodge have made positive contributions in 71% and 63% of their respective innings so far this season. Against the Steel, Hodge made 33 off 25 and Simmons was unbeaten on 65 off 51 to lead the successful run chase. Again the Warriors will be looking to these two and Ramdin to do the bulk of the scoring against the Steel tonight. The Warriors fans need not feel overly aggrieved that the match is being held in the Steels backyard. An analysis of some 350 games played across the IPL, BBL and CPL at non-neutral venues shows that the home team wins 53.9% of games, which represents a slight but not significant advantage. More interestingly, of the 11 past finals games in these leagues that for one reason or another have been played at a non-neutral venue, the home team has won on only four occasions.

Should the Warriors fans feel that their team has the psychological edge heading into tonight's match knowing that they defeated the Steel just four days ago? An analysis of past finals matches across the IPL, BBL and CPL shows that there is no such advantage. The winner of the previous encounter went on to win the subsequent finals game in 49% of the matches, which is as good as half. Of course some of the previous encounters may have occurred 2-3 weeks before the final, which could lessen the effect of the psychological advantage. If the analysis is refined to look at matches played within a few days of each other, the winner of the previous encounter went on the win the subsequent finals game in 8 out of 14 cases, or 57%. Maybe some good news for Warriors fans, but only a small sample size of course.

Key Match Ups

Botha and Benn were the only two Steel bowlers to record positive contributions in the loss to the Warriors four days ago. By dismissing Ramdin in that match, Botha has established himself as the only Steel bowler to have positive historic record against both Simmons and Ramdin. Expect Botha to be given the ball a bit earlier in the Warriors innings tonight.
While the Warriors batsmen have historically performed well against Benn, they have a weakness against left arm finger spinning in general. Benn went some way towards correcting his personal record and exploiting that weakness with four economical overs that only yielded 17 runs for the Warriors on Tuesday. Been was called upon to bowl early in that match and expect to see him called upon early again tonight.
Ramdin's failure against the Steel in the last match was uncharacteristic given his strong record against the majority of the Steel bowlers. While it was the first time he had faced Botha in T20 cricket, Ramdin has an above average record against right arm finger spinners in general. Expect Ramdin to be among the runs tonight.
Surprisingly, Delport and Kamran Akmal are the only two Steel batsmen to have a positive career record against Narine, having faced a combined 16 balls from him in the past. It would be a major boost for the Steel if these two can continue that run tonight.
For the Steel fans, although it goes without saying, it still needs to be said. Look out for the Bravo brothers tonight!
And for the Warriors fans, although it also goes without saying, it still needs to be said. Look out for the spin trio of Narine, Bishoo and Permaul tonight!
Finally for the cricket fans, hope it's a great game tonight and may the best team win!