Predictions for IPL 2014 playoffs
Prediction methodology
Note: Starting match 14 onwards, we are using only the data of IPL 2014 to predict the outcome of the matches of the current series.
The league stage of the seventh season of IPL is over, and the playoffs are about to begin shortly. Just as we had done for the league matches, we have generated predictions for the playoffs as well. Instead of generating predictions for each match one by one, we are presenting here a detailed scenario analysis of all the outcomes in one go. There will be four matches in the playoffs: the first match will be between the two table toppers, Kings XI Punjab and Kolkata Knight Riders. The winner of this match will move directly to the finals. The second match will be between Chennai Super Kings and Mumbai Indians, who will then take on the losers of the first match to decide the second finalist of the season.
The outcome of our prediction model is interesting in many ways. As per our analysis, Chennai Super Kings are the strongest team, but because they need to win twice to reach the finals, they are the third most likely team to win the tournament. Kings XI Punjab are the favorites to win with a 41.5% probability, following by Kolkata Knight Riders at 34.9%. Mumbai, who just managed to scrape through to the knock-out stage, are the least favored to be the repeat winners. The championship probabilities of the four teams are given in the table below.
| Team | Championship probability |
|---|---|
| Kings XI Punjab | 41.5% |
| Kolkata Knight Riders | 34.9% |
| Chennai Super Kings | 15.8% |
| Mumbai Indians | 7.8% |
More interesting is the probability of the individual outcomes in the playoffs. Since there are four playoff matches, we can have sixteen possible outcomes. The table below shows the probability of each possible outcome. The noticeable thing here is that the "most likely" scenario involves Chennai defeating Punjab in the finals, even though overall championship probability of Chennai is third after Punjab and Kolkata. The most probable pair of finalists are Punjab and Kolkata, with a little more than 50% chance that we will see the final being played between these two teams.
| Scenario | Qualifier 1 winner | Eliminator winner | Qualifier 2 winner | Champion | Runner-up | Scenario probability (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KXIP | CSK | CSK | CSK | KXIP | 8.4 |
| 2 | KXIP | CSK | CSK | KXIP | CSK | 8.2 |
| 3 | KXIP | CSK | KKR | KXIP | KKR | 7.6 |
| 4 | KKR | CSK | CSK | CSK | KKR | 7.4 |
| 5 | KKR | CSK | KXIP | KXIP | KKR | 7.2 |
| 6 | KXIP | CSK | KKR | KKR | KXIP | 6.7 |
| 7 | KXIP | MI | KKR | KXIP | KKR | 6.4 |
| 8 | KKR | CSK | CSK | KKR | CSK | 6.3 |
| 9 | KKR | CSK | KXIP | KKR | KXIP | 6.3 |
| 10 | KKR | MI | KXIP | KXIP | KKR | 6.0 |
| 11 | KXIP | MI | MI | KXIP | MI | 5.7 |
| 12 | KXIP | MI | KKR | KKR | KXIP | 5.6 |
| 13 | KKR | MI | KXIP | KKR | KXIP | 5.2 |
| 14 | KKR | MI | MI | KKR | MI | 4.4 |
| 15 | KXIP | MI | MI | MI | KXIP | 4.1 |
| 16 | KKR | MI | MI | MI | KKR | 3.6 |
No prediction model can be fully perfect, and this is the case with our model too. During the regular season, our model predicted 30 out of 56 matches correctly, for a success rate of 54%. During the start of the tournament, we were way off with only five predictions correct in the first 13 matches, which was mainly due to the fact that we were using the data from previous season heavily in our predictions. Subsequently, we started using only the data from the current season, and this led to a better success rate in our predictions. So take our predictions with a pinch of salt.
Moreover, the pre-match predictions presented here do not take into account one crucial factor, which is that of toss. During the Indian leg of the league stage, 24 out of 36 matches were won by teams batting second. On the relatively flat Indian pitches, it makes sense for a team to its opponent to bat first, so that the team has a clear idea of the target once they themselves come to bat. The spectacular run chases scripted by Kolkata Knight Riders and Mumbai Indians prove that teams are not afraid of chasing big totals. All the four teams in the playoffs have gunned down big totals - and have also failed to defend big totals of their own. Expect the playoffs to be no different with the team winning the toss opting to bowl first.
The T20 is a format of glorious uncertainties, and one cannot rule out surprises in this playoffs. Even though Mumbai are the least probable to win it all, let us not forget that they are the only team to have defeated the table toppers Kings XI Punjab twice in the tournament. They struggled during the start of the tournament because of their inability to find the right opening pair, but once they fixed this problem they were able to make a late surge to the knock-out stage. Similarly, Kolkata seemed to be going nowhere in the Arabian leg of the tournament, but then they won seven consecutive matches on the trot to end up in the second place in the points table. Kings XI Punjab were the apparent un-defeatable team of the tournament, but lately their bowling has been letting them down by giving away too many runs. Similarly, Chennai Super Kings, who have made it to the playoffs in all the seven seasons, started their season fluently but stuttered in the final few matches. The uncertainties of this format are what makes it so exciting to follow. The playoffs of the seventh season of IPL is going to be a closely fought affair and should live up to its reputation.
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