IPL 2014 Match 22 prediction: Punjab (63%) predicted to defeat Mumbai (37%)
Prediction methodology
Note: Starting match 14 onwards, we are using only the data of IPL 2014 to predict the outcome of the matches of the current series.
Prediction: Punjab (63%) predicted to easily defeat Mumbai (37%) (Match scorecard)
David, meet Goliath. Who would have thought that before the start of the tournament, the perennial under-performers Kings XI Punjab will take up the mantle of Goliath, and the defending champions Mumbai Indians will become the underdogs. One team has won all of its five matches this season, while the other team has lost all of its matches. A bigger mismatch could not have been possible for IPL. So it should come as no surprise that our model overwhelmingly favors Punjab in this match (or rather, mismatch).
Punjab are a team for which everything has worked out exactly as planned. Glenn Maxwell and David Miller took the tournament by storm in the first few matches. Then when they cooled down, their bowlers took the charge. Laxmipathy Balaji and Sandeep Singh turned out to be the surprising heroes with ball. This is a team with few flaws, and the only way they can lose is if there is some regression to mean in the performance of their players.
Mumbai, on the other hand, are a team for which little has worked so far. Both their high-priced acquisitions in the IPL auction - Mike Hussey and Corey Anderson - have under-performed badly. Mike Hussey was even dropped in the previous match in favor of Ben Dunk, but that did little to turn around their fortunes. Just like Punjab, some regression to mean is expected for Mumbai as well - though in the positive direction. A change of scenery might also help, and given that Mumbai will finally be playing in their home ground of Wankhede, this is perhaps the match where they get their groove back. Unfortunately for them, they face the hottest team of the tournament, and the battle still remains uphill for the Mumbai Indians.
Cricmetric's current prediction success rate for IPL 2014: 12/21 (57%)
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