IPL 2014 Match 37 prediction: Chennai (53%) expected to defeat Rajasthan (47%) in a close match
Prediction methodology
Note: Starting match 14 onwards, we are using only the data of IPL 2014 to predict the outcome of the matches of the current series.
Prediction: Chennai (53%) predicted to defeat Rajasthan (47%) (Match scorecard)
The Chennai Super Kings and Rajasthan Royals both took a very similar approach to team building in this year's IPL player auction. Both the teams retained five of their players from the previous season, and built the team around the solid core of retained players. Neither team spent excessively in the player auction - these were the two lowest spending team in that respect, spreading out money over a few very good overseas players and many solid domestic players. Their strategy seems to have paid off quite well, as Chennai and Rajasthan are currently in the second and third position respectively in the points table (which, by the way, also matches with our pre-tournament ranking of the teams).
It is therefore expected that the clash between two teams of fairly even strength is going to be a close one. Both the teams won their previous matches in tight encounters, and the grind is set to continue in this match as well. Chennai Super Kings have a slight edge going into this match, but there is one additional factor in their favor which is not captured in our model. All the home games of Chennai have been shifted to Ranchi for the rest of the season. This happens to be MS Dhoni's hometown, and he has never lost a match here. Dhoni is a local hero, and even though Chennai are playing miles away from their original home, they couldn't have asked for a better alternative home venue. The Royals will not only have to overcome a very strong Chennai team, but also a highly partisan crowd, if they are to overtake Chennai in the points table.
Cricmetric's current prediction success rate for IPL 2014: 19/36 (53%)
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