Death bowling in ODI is a conundrum which the captains often face when the team is bowling first. Should a team use its strike bowlers in the death overs? Or is bowling in the death overs a Russian Roulette in which it doesn’t really matter who bowls in that stage of the game?
First we need to precisely define what constitutes the death overs. For this analysis, the death overs are the overs 41-50 in the first innings of an ODI. The inclusion of 41st over onwards in the death overs can be debated, but it ensures that the sample size is big enough that we can draw statistically sound conclusions from the data.
The high-risk high-reward nature of the death overs for the bowlers is revealed in the following statistic. In 2011, the average runs given by a bowler in death overs (as per our definition) was 7.02. This means that, on an average, a bowler gives up at least 2 runs more per over as compared to any other over of the game. However, the strike rate of the bowlers in the same phase of the game is 17.49, which is almost half that of a normal over. So although bowlers give more runs during this period, they also tend to rack up wickets at twice the usual rate.
The next thing we need to decide is how to judge the performance of a bowler in the death overs? In the death overs, the value of a wicket is lower since the aim at this stage is to simply maximize the total runs for the batting team, by hook or by crook. So I will argue that the most important virtue of a death bowler is his economy rate: Even if a bowler is taking fewer wickets in this stage of the game, but at the same time giving away fewer runs as well, he is doing a good job.
Let us look at the list of bowlers in 2011 with the best economy rate in the death overs. We only look at bowlers who have bowled at least 48 balls (8 overs) in death, so that the average values make sense. The following table lists the top 10 death bowlers in 2011.
| Bowler | Balls | Wickets | Runs | Econ | Average | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DW Steyn | 99 | 12 | 54 | 3.2727 | 4.5000 | 8.2500 |
| Saeed Ajmal | 160 | 9 | 109 | 4.0875 | 12.1111 | 17.7778 |
| RA Jadeja | 48 | 2 | 34 | 4.2500 | 17.0000 | 24.0000 |
| BAW Mendis | 48 | 5 | 35 | 4.3750 | 7.0000 | 9.6000 |
| SL Malinga | 193 | 17 | 163 | 5.0674 | 9.5882 | 11.3529 |
| M Muralitharan | 72 | 5 | 66 | 5.5000 | 13.2000 | 14.4000 |
| Shakib Al Hasan | 114 | 7 | 108 | 5.6842 | 15.4286 | 16.2857 |
| R Ashwin | 66 | 2 | 63 | 5.7273 | 31.5000 | 33.0000 |
| VR Aaron | 61 | 4 | 59 | 5.8033 | 14.7500 | 15.2500 |
| P Utseya | 78 | 2 | 79 | 6.0769 | 39.5000 | 39.0000 |
A year to year analysis of the top death bowlers reveals a great deal of fluctuation in their performance (as well as usage). For example, consider the top death bowlers in 2010:
| Bowler | Balls | Wickets | Runs | Econ | Average | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL Vettori | 48 | 5 | 30 | 3.7500 | 6.0000 | 9.6000 |
| KAJ Roach | 67 | 5 | 55 | 4.9254 | 11.0000 | 13.4000 |
| SJ Benn | 60 | 3 | 50 | 5.0000 | 16.6667 | 20.0000 |
| AJ McKay | 67 | 6 | 58 | 5.1940 | 9.6667 | 11.1667 |
| SL Malinga | 54 | 1 | 47 | 5.2222 | 47.0000 | 54.0000 |
| P Utseya | 114 | 2 | 100 | 5.2632 | 50.0000 | 57.0000 |
| Mohammad Hafeez | 54 | 1 | 48 | 5.3333 | 48.0000 | 54.0000 |
| BAW Mendis | 66 | 3 | 60 | 5.4545 | 20.0000 | 22.0000 |
| Shahid Afridi | 48 | 0 | 44 | 5.5000 | NULL | NULL |
| DJ Bravo | 68 | 4 | 63 | 5.5588 | 15.7500 | 17.0000 |
And the top death bowlers in 2009:
| Bowler | Balls | Wickets | Runs | Econ | Average | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL Vettori | 61 | 5 | 49 | 4.8197 | 9.8000 | 12.2000 |
| M Muralitharan | 78 | 3 | 64 | 4.9231 | 21.3333 | 26.0000 |
| Naeem Islam | 72 | 4 | 63 | 5.2500 | 15.7500 | 18.0000 |
| Saeed Ajmal | 90 | 2 | 80 | 5.3333 | 40.0000 | 45.0000 |
| RW Price | 117 | 6 | 107 | 5.4872 | 17.8333 | 19.5000 |
| B Lee | 84 | 7 | 87 | 6.2143 | 12.4286 | 12.0000 |
| I Sharma | 153 | 11 | 161 | 6.3137 | 14.6364 | 13.9091 |
| DW Steyn | 171 | 10 | 182 | 6.3860 | 18.2000 | 17.1000 |
| P Utseya | 108 | 3 | 116 | 6.4444 | 38.6667 | 36.0000 |
| PD Collingwood | 54 | 4 | 58 | 6.4444 | 14.5000 | 13.5000 |
Although Daniel Vettori comes out as the top death bowler in both 2009 and 2010, it is surprising that he did not bowl a single delivery in the death overs in 2011 at all! And Saeed Ajmal, who is ranked second in death bowling in 2011, has a way lower rank in 2010.
Contrary to the popular belief that fast bowlers are the best option in death overs, this analysis shows that among the best death bowlers, the majority of them are in fact spinners. Bases on the numbers above, it is difficult to put a finger on who really is a good “death bowler”. However, it is safe to say that the tactic of using spinners in the last stages of the first innings is definitely worthwhile.