The increased popularity of online Fantasy Cricket is partially due to its classification as a game of skill, rather than gambling. In cricket mad countries such as India where gambling is largely illegal, it provides the opportunity for fans to display their cricket knowledge and selection skills and, best of all, make money at the same time!
I have decided to test my own skill (read luck) to see whether I can use analytics to select a team that would place sufficiently high enough to generate a positive return on my money. The site I have selected to trial my analysis on is Dream11.com.
Of course, being a sensible person, I am trialling my selections in the “Skill” league, which is free to enter an offers no cash prizes. I will enter one fantasy team only per match in the BBL05 and share the results following the completion of the match. The winnings (and of course “losings”) will be calculated as if I had joined the league offering total prizes of Rs. 50,000. This league allows up to 500 entries and will pay cash prizes to the top 150 entries, or the top 30%, as per the table below:
Whatever rank I achieve in the “Skill” league, will be applied to the above table to calculate the assumed return generated!
Following is the generic approach I have taken to team selections:
- Using the Dream11 fantasy cricket scoring logic, I generated actual scores for each player for each game of the 2015 IPL
- As at the start of each game, I produced a range of stats for each player including – balls faced per inning, batting strike rate, balls per four, balls per six, ducks per innings, batting position, scores 50-99 per innings, centuries per innings, bowling economy rate, balls bowled per match, wickets per match – as well as some predictive stats I have created that measure’s a players consistency and performance relative to “average” match performances given various match states
- Using these stats I calculated the expected Dream11 points the player would be expected to earn in the match to be played
- Breaking the players into the following segments – all rounders, bowlers and batsmen – separate regression equations were developed to calculate the forecast Dream11 points to be earned by each player
So, I will start by putting my neck on the line with the second game of BBL05, the Adelaide Strikers v Melbourne Stars. Below is my fantasy team. Wish me luck and I’ll update the results after the match!
