Champions League 2014 final prediction: Chennai (51%) have a slight edge over Kolkata (49%)

By Shashi Mittal On October 03, 2014

Prediction methodology

Prediction: Chennai (51%) have a slight edge over Kolkata (49%) (Match scorecard)

Team form

Chennai Super Kings: The Super Kings had a slow start to the tournament, starting with a loss - to who else, but the Kolkata Knight Riders. However they recovered well after that, winning their remaining league matches (the match against Lahore Lions got washed out). They annihilated the mighty Kings XI Punjab in the semi-finals, and are going into the final with their confidence soaring.
Kolkata Knight Riders: The Kolkata Knight Riders have won all their matches in this tournament, and are in fact on a 14 match winning streak, going back to the Indian Premier League season. Like Super Kings, they too had a somewhat shaky start, but have gotten better with each subsequent match. The IPL champs will certainly put in their best effort to round out the season by winning the Champions Trophy as well.

Head to head

Chennai Super Kings and Kolkata Knight Riders have played each other a total of three times this year, including once in the group stage in this tournament. Kolkata Knight Riders have won twice, while Chennai Super Kings have won once.

Venue

Rain has led to abandonment of one match, and shortening of another, at Bangalore. There is a forecast for rain on the eve of the finals, so this factor cannot be totally discounted. Bangalore is a typically high score ground, and the average first innings score here this year has been 173. Nevertheless, teams have still chased down big scores on this ground, so no first innings total is safe. There is a good chance that the team winning the toss will decide to bowl first.

Prediction

Sunil Narine's suspension for the final match is a big setback for the Kolkata Knight Riders. He has not only been their best bowler in the tournament - taking 12 wickets at a measly economy rate of 5.30 - but he has also been the best player overall too, based on our EFscore ranking criteria. The Knight Riders have capable spinners in Piyush Chawla and Yusuf Pathan, but Narine's absence will surely be felt. On the other hand, their batsmen have been scoring plenty of runs after a slow start in the tournament.

The Knight Riders batsmen will however be facing a fairly hostile bowling attack of the Super Kings. Ashish Nehra has been in a superb form, and he has been ably supported by another quickie, Mohit Sharma. Besides, Chennai are always a threat with the bat, and they bat fairly deep. Ravindra Jadeja doesn't come to bat till the 8th spot, and Ashwin at 9th is no slouch with the bat either. This makes them especially dangerous when they are chasing, more so on a ground like Bangalore, where it will be a tall order to defend any total against the Super Kings. Overall, Chennai have a very slight edge over Kolkata in what should be a thrilling encounter between the top two teams of the tournament.