CPL 2015 Match 25 Preview: Barbados Tridents vs Trinidad & Tobago Red Steel

By Bruce Ogden On July 16, 2015

When first players last on the ladder the result is normally a forgone conclusion. The Tridents stand alone at the top of the table with 10 points and with 2 matches in hand, while Red Steel has 5 points with 4 matches in hand. Mathematically it would be possible for the Steel to finish ahead of the Tridents if they win their remaining four games, starting with this one tonight. However with the Tridents holding the longest winning streak in the tournament to date at three, together with the real likelihood of further interruption from the weather, this is an unlikely scenario.

Cricmetric's pre match prediction model has the Tridents as slight favourites for tonight's match with a win probability of 54%. In a game where we expect bat to dominate, the main difference between the teams is the batting form of Kieron Pollard. A rare failure from Pollard would see the odds even out. Note that the 54% win probability assumes Nurse will play. Given that the Tridents top order has a poor record against leg spin bowling, it is likely that Mendis will replace Nurse. If this happens, the Tridents win probability increases to 59%. Refer to the tables below for the full set of match predictions.

Given the recent rain interruptions and the likelihood of more to come, we emphasize that the predictions below assume the match runs for a full 20 overs per side. Therefore any rain interruption nullifies the predictions.

Pre-Match Predictions

Barbados Tridents

The consistency of the Tridents batting performances has been one of their key success factors for their season to date. The Tridents worst batting performance was their 135 versus the Patriots on 6th July. Only the Patriots (143 v the Tridents on 27th June) have a better "worst performance" in the 2015 CPL.

The Trident's approach has been for Smith, Munaweera and Carter to build a steady platform for Pollard and Holder to close the innings with aggression. The Tridents top 3 have faced a combined average of 56.1 balls per innings (almost half the innings) with a strike rate of 105. This equates to average score of around 63 for 1/2 at the end of their first 10 overs. Pollard (mainly) and Holder have then averaged a combined 38.1 balls per innings at a strike rate of 144.6. While a conservative start makes it harder to reach the big 180+ totals (Tridents highest total to date is 172) is helps to prevent against outright collapse and keeps the team in every match.

With the exception of the 202 runs they conceded against the Zouks (the only 200+ score to date in this year's CPL), the Tridents bowling has no doubt been their strong point. The expected line up for tonight's match has a combined economy rate of 7.0 rpo, better than the average of 7.4 rpo. The pleasing aspect of this for the Tridents is that there is no over-reliance on any two or three bowlers, with all five of their mainstream bowlers having a better than average economy rate. In addition the team is taking a wicket every 16.7 balls (v 19.2 average) and conceding a boundary every 8.0 balls (v 7.0 average).

Players to Watch

As mentioned, Kieron Pollard has been the key player in the Tridents team this CPL. He is the leading run scorer for the team and for Tridents players who have faced at least 20 deliveries, he has the best strike rate (151.0), the lowest balls faced per boundary struck (5.7), faces the fewest dot balls per over (1.9) and slugs the hardest for every non dot ball faced (2.2 runs). In the two matches Pollard has failed with the bat this year, Shoaib Malik has made vital runs and the Tridents have won. With no Malik in the team for the rest of the season, Misbah-ul-Haq becomes a vital performer in case Pollard fails.

Pollard is also having a breakout season with the ball. In this CPL to date he is conceding just 6.1 runs per over, compared to the 7.8 runs per over he has conceded on average over the past 3 years. Given his bowling workload in the 2015 CPL, this equates to an additional 6 runs per innings saved in the field for the Tridents based on Pollards improved bowling alone.

Trinidad and Tobago Red Steel

The Red Steel bats have only come alive in their last two games of the tournament. Against the Patriots it was their top 3 of Kallis, Delport and Perkins who lead the successful run chase against the Patriots while in their rain shortened loss against the Zouks, it was Kallis and the Bravo brothers who were the main contributors.

The Steel need to build on these performances across the entire top 6 if they are to pose any sustained threat to the top teams for the remainder of the league stage. The Steel have the lowest batting strike rate (108.5) and the lowest number of balls faced per wicket lost (16.4) across all teams in this year's CPL. While for the Tridents it is the middle order providing the acceleration, for the Steel the middle order has been the handbrake. The Bravo brothers and Botha face an average of 41.1 balls between them per innings (almost 7 overs) with a combined strike rate of 89.5.

The Steels bowling metrics for the CPL to date have been a mixed bag. On the positive side they take a wicket every 15.2 balls (v 19.2 average) and bowl 2.3 dot balls per over (v 2.2 average). However they concede a boundary on average every over (v 7.0 balls average) and concede 2.1 runs (v average 1.9 runs) for every not dot ball they bowl. Overall they concede 7.6 runs per over compared to the 7.4 rpo average. Bravo and Cooper are the two main culprits. Together they bowl an average of just under 7 overs per innings with an economy rate of 8.1 rpo.

Players to Watch

The elder statesman, Kallis, is the closest the Steel have to a Pollard in their line-up. Kallis has been their top scorer so far in the 2015 CPL, facing an average of 20.6 balls per innings and scoring at the more than acceptable strike rate of 127.2. Like Pollard, Kallis is also having an excellent season with the ball. In this CPL, Kallis is conceding just 6.6 runs per over compared to his 3 year average of 7.4 rpo, which equates to around 3 runs saved per inning.

Historically the Steel's bowlers have had better than average economy rates across all stages of the innings, however in this CPL they are struggling to hold the opposition batsmen, especially in overs 5-8. Bravo and Cooper historically have better than average returns across these overs, but in this CPL they are going at 8.7 rpo and 7.6 rpo respectively, compared to the average of 6.9 rpo in overs 5-8. Along with Kallis, Badree is the only other Steel bowler to have a better than average economy rate in this year's CPL (7.0 rpo conceded v 7.4 average). The Steel cannot afford him to have an off night tonight.

Key Match Ups

Pollard has an above average historical bowling record to each Steel batsman except DJ Bravo. Expect Pollard to have another strong night with the ball.

Holder is the only Tridents bowler to have the measure of both the Bravo brothers. Holder will be to go-to man to keep them quiet in tonight's match.

Apart from Holder, DJ Bravo has a positive batting record against all other Trident's bowlers. He could be the key in the middle order for the Steel tonight.

Kallis is the only Steel bowler to have an overall positive record against the Tridents line up. He will be the key for early wickets tonight.

While Benn has a positive record against Smith, Munaweera, Pollard and Misbah, the 15 deliveries he has bowled to Carter in the past have been absolutely caned. Look for Carter to farm the strike against Benn if he is bowling well.

Apart from Benn, Munaweera has a positive record against all other Steels bowlers. Look for Munaweera to be in the runs tonight.

The Steel top order has a historical weakness against leg spin bowling. Look for Mendis as a possible inclusion in the starting line up at the expense of Nurse. This change would increase the Tridents probability of winning to 59%.

The Tridents top order has a historical weakness against right arm fast bowling, the only exponent of which the Steel have in their bowling line up is ML Cummins. Unfortunately his career over the last 12 months has been well below average and it is unlikely this weakness will be exploited in the match tonight.