With the Sydney Thunder starting their campaign off with a win, the winner of tonight’s game between the Brisbane Heat and the Melbourne Renegades will become the second of the bottom three finishers in last years competition to start BBL05 with a “W”. Between them the Heat and the Renegades recorded just 5 wins from their 16 matches in BBL04, with the deuce of wins for the Heat making them the current holders of the wooden spoon.
While the Melbourne Renegades hold a narrow 3-2 head to head lead in match ups between these teams over the last 5 years, their last meeting in BBL04 – which the Renegades won – could hardly be described as narrow! In that match, Shikib Al Hasan decimated the Heat’s middle order taking 4/13 off his 4 overs consigning the Heat to a miserable all-out total of just 80. The Renegades did the needful knocking off the runs with 6 overs to spare.
Cricmetric’s win probability model has the Brisbane Heat as strong favourites to level the head-to-head at 3-a-piece with a win probability of 66%. Despite the Renegades having the slightly stronger batting line up, the Heat’s favourites tag is driven by their superior bowling unit led by Badree and Lalor. This will be the first BBL meeting between these two teams in Brisbane and the Heat would dearly love to welcome the Renegades with a walloping!
Brisbane Heat Team News
The Brisbane Heat were not the wooden spooners last year through any fault of their batting. Their average score of 154.1 was a credible 4th out of the 8 teams in the league while balls per four (9.4) and balls per six (20.9) each ranked 2nd. However the Brisbane batsmen let their striking override their natural instincts for preservation which resulted in the Heat rating worst in the league for average balls faced per batsman per innings (16.3). JJ Peirson and, to a lesser extent, Lynn were the main culprits facing an average of 13.3 and 21.1 balls per innings respectively despite their healthy strike rates of 174.2 and 176.8 runs scored per 20 overs. The Heat made very few changes to their batting line up in BBL05 knowing that a slight tempering of their striking power at the top of the order should yield better results for the team with the likes of Cutting and Reardon ready to take advantage down the order.
Brisbane do however need to improve on their bowling record in BBL04 if they’re going to threaten for a spot in the finals this year. The Heat ranked second bottom last year in terms of economy rate (8.5 rpo) and balls per boundary conceded (6.1) and were last in the league by the length of the straight in terms of balls per wicket taken (25.3 – second worst was the Sydney Thunder at 20.7 balls per wicket). Not many of the Heat bowlers were spared in BBL04 with Hopes and Christain probably the pick of the bowlers.
The key new faces in the bowling department for the Heat in BBL05 may not be big names – Fekete, Lalor and Feldman – but in Lalor and Feldman at least the Heat have signed bowlers whose past records in the BBL demonstrate they will be a boost to their bowling stocks. While Fekete’s record needs and no doubt will improve, as long as he gets a chance to bowl in tandem with Steketee then I’m happy.
Melbourne Renegades Team News
In BBL04 the Melbourne Renegades had arguably the worst batting record in the league. They ranked last in the competition in terms of runs per innings (141.7), balls per boundary (7.9) and dot balls faced per over (2.0). They also had the second worst record in terms of average balls faced per batsman per innings (16.4), behind only their opponents in this game, the Brisbane Heat. Their top three batsmen with respect to balls faced in BBL04 – Finch, Ferguson and Wade – all contributed to this result. Finch struck at an uncharacteristically low 134.2 runs per 20 overs faced averaging just 16.8 balls per inning. Ferguson faired a little better striking at 137.6 runs per 20 overs and averaging 21.4 balls per innings, while Wade had a better strike rate (141.2 runs per 20 overs) but could only average 18.4 balls per inning.
To turn this around in BBL05 the Renegades signed the greatest batsman in T20 history – a fellow named Chris Gayle. There is no bowler in the world who can contain Gayle when he is on fire, and the Renegades hope to keep a flame under him right throughout this BBL. The only question mark over Gayle would be that his BBL record (strike rate 119.2 runs per 20 overs, 25.0 balls faced per innings and a boundary every 9.4 balls) is well inferior to his IPL record (strike rate 179.9 runs per 20 overs, 34.4 balls faced per innings and an incredible boundary every 4.6 deliveries).
The bowling of the Melbourne Renegades was their bright spot in BBL04. The Renegades were 2nd in the league in terms of economy rate (7.2 rpo) and balls bowled per boundary conceded (8.2). They went one better and led the league in terms of dot balls bowled per over (1.9). While they will miss having Fawad Ahmed – BBL04 economy rate of 5.8 rpo and 2.2 dot balls bowled per over – and Shakib Al Hasan in their ranks this year the Renegades have recruited experienced replacements in the form of Hauritz and Doherty. One can’t help but get the feeling though their bowling will probably not reach the same levels they achieved last year.
Key Match Ups
- The BBL05 Brisbane Heat batting line up has an overall above average batting record against the Melbourne Renegades bowling unit
- The main contributors to this are Forrest, Cutting and Reardon and whose records against the Renegades bowlers are even more imposing when excluding Peter Siddle, who is likely to be unavailable for the majority of BBL05
- For the Renegades bowlers Bravo, Rimmington and Pattinson have the best overall records against the Heat batting line-up
- The Brisbane Heat batsmen strike at 140.5 runs per 20 overs against left arm bowlers and 161.6 runs per 20 overs against right arm bowlers. Doherty will be key in this regard, not only as he is the main left arm bowler in the Renegades line up, but because the Heat play left arm finger spinners particularly poorly with only Forrest and Reardon having above average records against this style of bowling
- Just as the Heat line up perform strongly on average against the Renegades bowlers, so to do the Renegades batsmen against the Heat bowlers
- Only White and Cooper among the recognized Renegades batsmen have below average records against the Heat bowlers
- Of the Heat bowlers, Hopes and Lalor have the best overall records against the Renegades
- The Renegades batsmen have nearly identical strike rates whether facing left arm or right arm bowlers (159 and 160 runs per 20 overs bowled respectively)
- With the exception of Bravo, Ferguson and Wade, the Renegades batting line up perform strongly against right arm wrist spinners which is likely to nullify to an extent the impact of Badree