The T20 game between Royal Challengers Bangalore and South Australia in the Champions Trophy has to be among one of the craziest played in the recent years. South Australia batted first and scored 214 runs, which in a normal game would have been a landslide victory for the team batting first. Instead, in the second innings the game swung wildly and changed hands many times. The game remained on a tightrope till the very end, which is evident in the win probaility graph of Bangalore shown below.
There were many heroes (and zeroes) in this game. Here is the sequence of the events in the game, as seen from the lens of win probability:
- Harris scores a blistering century en route to leading his team to a total of 214 runs. In this process, he accumulates a win probability added (WPA) score of 0.607. At this stage, the win probability of South Australia sits at a comfortable 0.822.
- The Royal Challengers start their run chase in earnest, and at the end of 6 overs they score 65 runs without losing any wicket. On the next ball, Christian takes the prize wicket of Gayle. The win probability of South Australia at this stage is 0.872.
- However, Kohli and Dilshan are in no mood to relent. The South Australian bowlers become mere punching bags for the two batsmen. The two add 100 runs for the second wicket in just nine overs. Tait finally gets rid of Kohli at the end of the 15th over. But by this time Kohli has already taken Bangalore to a win probability of 0.619. Kohli accumulates a WPA score of 0.210. The game is very much on.
- After a tight over by Lyon, Tait strikes again at the end of his second over and gets rid of Tiwary. Win probability of Bangalore falls to 0.333.
- In the next over, Mayank Agarwal opens his account with a first ball six, but is out the very next ball. In comes the skipper Vettori, who also opens his account with a six. At the end of the wild 18th over, Bangalore’s win probability stands at 0.533. The game is equally poised at this stage.
- The crucial 19th over goes to Tait, who bowls superbly and takes three wickets in six deliveries, including those of Dilshan (0.213 WPA) and Vettori (who accumulated 0.396 WPA in just 5 deliveries, thanks to his six). At the end of the 19th over, Bangalore’s win probability is just 0.222. They need 14 runs in the last over with 3 wickets in hand. For his terrific bowling, Tait accumulates a 0.677 WPA.
- The last over is no less dramatic than the ones before, and after a run out, a boundary and a bye, it comes down to scoring six runs off the last ball. The win probability of Bangalore at this stage is 0. No team has ever before won a game off the last ball with six runs needed. But Arun Karthik has no time for revising history. He smashes a slow ball from Christian for a six and clinches the semi-final spot for Bangalore. And he gets a WPA score of 0.900. Phew.
A wild, wild game in which both the teams fought hard, but unfortunately only one team had to win and this time it was Bangalore.