New Zealand vs Netherlands
Prediction: New Zealand (61%) expected to easily defeat Netherlands (39%)
In our prediction for the previous match of Netherlands against South Africa, we had said that South Africa will win the match and in the process also boost their Net Run Rate. While South Africa did win the match, it ended up being a really close match, and hardly provided any gains to South Africa in the NRR department.
This teaches us two important lessons. First, Netherlands are no pushovers, and there is still a possibility that they also give New Zealand a run for their money. Second, it is New Zealand now who have the advantage of NRR over South Africa, and are now the favorites to go through to the semi-finals (Sri Lanka being the other one). This group is still wide open, so New Zealand better not make this match as close as South Africa did!
England vs South Africa
Prediction: A very close match, but South Africa (51%) expected to edge out Engaland (49%)
This should be a really close match between two teams of equal strength. A win probability of 51%/49% is within the margin of error of our prediction system, so this is anyone’s game. Our model gives a very slight advantage to South Africa in this match though.
England are on a high after their successful chase against Sri Lanka. Alex Hales‘and Eoin Morgan‘s performance in the batting department is definitely a big plus for them, however concerns still remain with their bowling department.
Meanwhile, South Africa will be looking to make amends after their near-defeat against Netherlands in the previous match. Even if they win this match, it is likely that they will be in the third position in their group at the end of the day, so not only it is important for the Proteas to win this match, but also win with a convincing margin. If South Africa win this match, they will be all but through to the semi-finals, whereas if they lose, it will come to NRR which may not work out in their favor. So the South Africans would like to keep it simple, and just defeat England to secure a berth for themselves in the knock-out stage.
Cricmetric’s current prediction score: 8/12 (67%)