Note: For the knock-out stage of the tournament, we are using the data of all the matches of World T20 2014 for predicting the match outcomes, instead of using the data from 2012 onwards, as we were doing previously.
Semi-final 1: Sri Lanka vs West Indies
Prediction: West Indies (51.5%) expected to beat Sri Lanka (48.5%) in a close encounter.
Given that four of the best teams in the tournament have reached the semi-finals, it should come as no surprise that the remaining three matches are going to be fairly close. So the first semi-final is expected to be a nail-biting contest. West Indies are the defending champions, and they have played with their natural flair in this tournament so far. Sri Lankans are the pre-tournament favorites, who have shown a penchant for demolishing their opponents when they get an opening. So who will come out on the top in the first semi-final?
Our model gives a slight advantage to West Indies going into this match. True, Sri Lankans may appear to have a stronger bowling attack, especially given the way they annihilated New Zealand in their previous match. However, West Indies are the perfect team to counter them. Since losing to India in their first match, West Indies have navigated the opposing spinners and the conditions quite well. Plus, their bowlers have held their own in this tournament, never mind that it may not have been as flashy as compared to the Sri Lankan bowlers. And don’t forget, the last time the two teams met, it was the finals of the World T20 2012 tournament, and West Indies easily defeated Sri Lanka in that match. Expect the same outcome in this match too.
Cricmetric’s current prediction score: 15/20 (75%)