Note: For the knock-out stage of the tournament, we are using the data of all the matches of World T20 2014 for predicting the match outcomes, instead of using the data from 2012 onwards, as we were doing previously.
Semi-final 2: India vs South Africa
Prediction: India and South Africa in a dead heat, but South Africa (50.5%) have a very slight edge over India (49.5%).
The prediction for this is match is the closest that we have obtained so far among all the matches in the World T20 tournament. With such a thin margin separating the two teams, it is basically anybody’s game. Unfortunately, however, the outcome of the match may be decided by Mother nature instead of the players on the ground. The first semi-final got washed out, and there is a forecast of rain for the second semi-final as well. This renders any projection system useless. When the team batting second comes out to bat in the second innings, for example, are they going to be chasing the original target set to them? Or are they just going to play in a risk-averse fashion and keep wickets in hand to stay ahead of the D/L target? Even if the original target is a big one, it is easy to strategize around the D/L target to stay ahead while chasing, if indeed there is a good chance of rain in the second innings. No projection system can deal with such vagaries of the nature and strategic manipulation of the D/L targets.
So weather aside, what gives the edge to South Africa over India, even though India is the only undefeated team in the tournament? For one, even though South Africa have played quite a few close matches, it cannot hide the fact that at an individual level their players have played quite well. It is just a matter of them putting together a clinical team performance, and then South Africa is as good as a team as anyone else in this tournament. They definitely have an edge in terms of bowling attack. Dale Steyn and Imran Tahir both have been among the leading wicket-takers in the tournament, and provide a good diversity in terms of seam and spin attack. This is pretty much a contest between Indian batting and South African bowling. Whosoever among those two comes out on the top, wins this match for their team, as long as the weather doesn’t play spoilsport.
Cricmetric’s current prediction score: 15/21 (71%)