Note: For the knock-out stage of the tournament, we are using the data of all the matches of World T20 2014 for predicting the match outcomes, instead of using the data from 2012 onwards, as we were doing previously.
Final: India vs Sri Lanka
Prediction: India (56%) expected to defeat Sri Lanka (44%) to become the T20 champions.
One unique thing about this World T20 tournament has been that no two teams have played each other twice. That in itself should make the finals an interesting match to watch. However, India and Sri Lanka have played each other so many times in the past couple of years, including the final of the ODI World Cup almost two years back, this is a deja-vu for the fans as well the players. Both the teams are only too familiar with each other’s strengths and weaknesses, having played against each other not only in international tournaments, but also alongside each other in the Indian Premier League as well. These two also happen to be the best two teams in the tournament, and are therefore well deserved finalists. Our model finally shows some love for India, and gives them a comfortable lead over Sri Lanka to win the finals and emerge as the T20 champions.
India are the only undefeated team in this tournament. They have worked as a well-oiled team, and efficiently dispatched every opponent they have faced so far. All of their top batsmen have played at least one significant knock in this tournament. In Amit Mishra and Ravichandran Ashwin, the team has two of the leading wicket takers of this tournament. Their fielding has been rock solid. They have won both batting first as well as when chasing with ease. India have very few chinks in their armor going into this match. Their only weakness appears to be in the fast bowling department, and Sri Lanka will be looking to target them when they come out to bat. MS Dhoni gave his fast bowlers only 5 overs in their semi-final match, but part-timer Suresh Raina too went for 35 runs in his 8 overs without taking a wicket. If Sri Lanka can navigate Mishra and Ashwin successfully and feast on Indian fast bowlers and part-timers, they can certainly put up a big score on the board.
On the other hand, Sri Lanka have mostly relied on their bowling attack to overcome opponents in this tournament. However, Indian batsmen have generally played their bowlers, and in particular their spinners, quite well in the recent past. In that respect, the advantage is definitely with the Indian batsmen. The performance of their top order also has been patchy, and they haven’t had a first wicket partnership of more than 40 in the tournament. The best bet for Sri Lanka will be to put India to bat first – that is if they indeed win the toss – as no target is safe when it comes to defending against India. They will have to restrict India to a reasonable total, and then go after the average seam attack of India when chasing.
The final match may seem to be a bit repetitive to some, but it should still make for an exciting viewing between two of the best T20 teams. For now, India have a definite upper hand and should secure another ICC championship under the masterful captaincy of MS Dhoni.
Cricmetric’s current prediction score: 15/22 (68%)