Note: Starting March 30, we are using the data of the second round of the tournament of World T20 2014 only for predicting the match outcomes, instead of using the data from 2012 onwards, as we were doing previously.
Bangladesh vs Australia
Prediction: Australia (55%) expected to beat Bangladesh (45%).
In the article yesterday, I wrote the following with regards to the match between England and Netherlands:
So far, none of the teams that had to play in the first round of the tournament (the so called “minnows”) have caused an upset in the tournament. The closest anyone came was Netherlands in their contest against South Africa, but don’t expect lightning to strike twice.
Contests like these illustrate the biggest peril with predicting the outcomes of Cricket matches. It is unlikely that any sound model would have picked Netherlands over England, yet Netherlands won. The upcoming match between Australia and Bangladesh is very similar: both the sides have already been knocked out of the semi-finals, so they are playing only for their pride. Neither team has yet to win a contest in the main round of this tournament. Bangladesh will definitely try to save their face in front of the home ground, and might be more motivated for this reason than Australia. Nevertheless, our model predicts an Australian victory in this match. Can a repeat of yesterday’s match happen? Certainly. Will it indeed happen? Unlikely. Just like I said yesterday, don’t expect the lightning to strike twice 🙂
West Indies vs Pakistan
Prediction: West Indies (51%) expected to edge out Pakistan (49%) in a close encounter.
This is probably the boldest prediction of the whole tournament we are making here. The virtual quarter final between two very unpredictable teams, one of them the defending champion, and the other pre-tournament favorite, is likely to be a thrilling contest that goes down the wire. Unlike the previous match, the stakes are fairly high for this final match of the main round of the tournament. Most pundits will give an edge to Pakistan for this match-up, but our model favors West Indies, if only by a very thin margin.
Is Chris Gayle the volcano finally about to explode? Or are the Pakistani spinners going to flummox the West Indians just as the Lankans did to the Kiwis? Is Darren Sammy going to play his role of finisher with finesse, or is Umar Gul going to knock out the flamboyant Carribeans with his vicious yorkers? No one knows, but in the end it is going to come down to West Indies batting vs Pakistan’s bowling. Get ready for a fitting finale to the league stage of this World T20 tournament.
Cricmetric’s current prediction score: 13/18 (72%)